News for Q3 (September) 2024
I ended last quarter’s newsletter with “Let’s hope our next newsletter can be a little more upbeat.” well guess what?
If last quarter, especially June, the news was all about the heat, with floods, fires and droughts, well July has carried on where June left off; with further fires, floods and the UN chief issuing an “urgent call to action to better protect billions around the world exposed to crippling effects of extreme heat, …”1
NASA has produced a vivid graphic depicting the rise of air temperatures month on month year on year, it can be found here they go on to report that “Average global temperatures for the past 12 months hit record highs for each respective month – an unprecedented streak”2
In late June and early July Beryl, a category five Hurricane made its way through parts of the Caribbean before making landfall on the Gulf Coast of the USA as a category 1. The damage inflicted all along its path was significant with flooding, destructive winds and loss of life. In August Storm Debby arrived in southern Florida and whilst not having the strong winds of Beryl, the torrential rainfall triggered widespread flash floods and river flooding across the south eastern U.S., especially from Florida to the Carolinas.3 Below Fig 1 shows how a major storm can affect the weather not only through the Caribbean and across the USA but also as far away as the UK where it produced unusually warm weather in Scotland as it passed by.4
Angela Colbert of NASA says these events are projected to increase in intensity as the climate warms,5 I think most people now understand and that unfortunately there is likely to be increasing damage and destruction where these severe weather events happen.
As predicted this year has seen some severe storms.
According to news reports, more than 170 dead in Vietnam as in early September6; on Sept 24th the BBC reported that the “Strongest typhoon in a decade hits 'China's Hawaii'”7 Followed in late September Hurricane Helene in Florida where “… 230 people have been killed from Hurricane Helene, which unleashed devastation across Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee.”8. It was reported as the 4th strongest hurricane in US history, and following that Hurricane Milton was expected to arrive in early October.
Other Natural Disasters being exacerbated by climate change, specifically global warming, are droughts and fires; droughts can cause starvation and desertification but also fires, these fires pose serious danger to lives and property in and around dry vegetation and around the world in arid regions where Mediterranean climates predominate such as Spain, Portugal and much of California, wildfires are growing in intensity and frequency and that today climate scientists have correlated the growing incidence and intensity of wildfires with rising global temperatures.9
In its “Global Climate Trends and Forecasts” the IPCC have issued a global warning about the state of the climate, and that includes Kazakhstan which is also threatened by extreme weather events, specifically the report says; “According to national and international experts, climatic disasters such as drought and river shallowing will become commonplace in Kazakhstan. According to forecasts, by 2030, the efficiency of pastures in the country will decrease by 10%, by 2040, the water deficit will be 50% of the demand, and more than 50% of the current glacier mass will be lost by 2100.”10
As reported in our News Q1 newsletter, in response to the ongoing climate crises, the Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced during the 2020 UN Summit on Climate Ambitions the aspiration to become carbon neutral by 2060; in 2021 the Astana Times reported; “President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government to bring the share of renewable energy in the nation’s total energy grid to 15 percent by 2030.”11
According to the IEA (2022) “Kazakhstan has made ambitious commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the role of renewables in its energy supply.”12 namely, “reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to 15% below their 1990 levels by 2030 and of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060”.13 which was confirmed again by the Kazakhstan government in 2023.13
Fig 2 is a graphic of the UN report which captures the most likely negative aspects of climate change on Kazakhstan, and the requirements to implement the strategy for Carbon Neutrality in 2060.
There are a number of points in fig 2 involving RES required to achieve the two stated goals of:
• Bring GHG emissions to 15% below their 1990 levels by 2030
• reaching carbon neutrality by 2060
1. “The abandonment of new coalfired generation projects and the phasing out of coal combustion” by 2025, next year!
As a part of this process Kazakhstan held a referendum to understand support for the construction of a new Nuclear Power Station, according to a piece from the Carnegie Politika organisation; “More than 70 percent of Kazakhs have voted in favour of construction of a new nuclear power plant at a tightly controlled referendum on October 6.”14
How this decision is realised remains to be seen, as the piece goes on to say it has been the ambition of various energy ministers, dating back to 1997 to build such a power station; more on this subject next quarter (4) when perhaps there will be more clarity.
2. “A doubling of the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation” this time by the year 2030.
How this will be achieved is unclear, although some first steps have been made there is a long way to go in the next 5 years. The Qazaqstan Monitor, reported that the ministry of energy plan to have 5 large scale RES projects completed, ministry is quoted as saying;
“Large-scale RES projects are currently at various stages of development. The commissioning of five large renewable energy projects with a total capacity of 5 GW is planned for 2029-2030,”15
According to open sources 3 large wind projects are already planned;
Firstly in June 2023 ACWA Power, a leading Saudi developer, … announced the signing of the Roadmap Agreement with the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan … for the 1GW wind energy and battery storage project within the Central Asian country.”16
Then in the same month (June, 2023) TOTAL Energies announced they had signed “a 25-year PPA for a 1 GW Wind Project”17
Then in December of 2023 during the UN Climate Change Conference - United Arab Emirates (COP28) where, according to the Astana Times, “Kazakhstan Signs Agreements Worth $4.85 Billion in Green Energy, …”5 among which was the construction of a large-scale 1GW wind power station by MASDAR, UAE. “The $1.4 billion project aligns with Kazakhstan’s goal to transition from fossil fuels towards clean energy”.18
Those 3 projects alone will account for 3GW of new renewable energy plus an over 1 GW of storage of potential energy in time for the 2030 deadline.
We are sure the Total project is moving forward as we (3E) are involved as a sub-contractor in the surveying and layout of the site; however, we have no information of the status of the other two projects.
Next quarter (Q4 2024) the News letter will concentrate on the Kazakhstan market and how the various projects are progressing.
References and further reading
1 Mishra, V. (2024). The heat is on: We must rise to the challenge of rising temperatures, urges UN chief. UN. Retrieved from more details
2 Younger, S. (2024). NASA Analysis Confirms a Year of Monthly Temperature Records. NASA. Retrieved from more details
3 NOAA. (2024). A Look Back at Debby. Retrieved from more details
4 Met Office (6 August 2024). Significant’ impacts from Tropical Storm Debby in United States – will it influence UK weather? Retrieved from more details
5 Colbert, A. (2022). A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate. NASA. Retrieved from more details
6 Ng, K. (2024) Thousands flee Vietnam floods after typhoon hits. BBC. Retrieved from more details
7 Ng, K. & Guinto, J. (2024). Strongest typhoon in a decade hits 'China's Hawaii'. BBC. Retrieved from more details
8 Shapiro, E., Brennan, D., Sarnoff, L., Reinstein, J., Deliso, M. & Pereira, I. (2024). Hurricane Helene updates: Death toll surpasses 230 as rescue efforts continue. ABC News. Retrieved from more details
9 Lieberman, B. (2019). Wildfires and climate change: What’s the connection?. Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved from more details
10 UNDP. (2021). IPCC ALARM REPORT: Global Climate Trends and Forecasts for Kazakhstan. Retrieved from more details
11 Satubaldina, A. (2021) Kazakhstan to Increase Share of Renewable Energy to 15 Percent by 2030. The Astana Times. Retrieved from more details
12 EIA. (2022) Kazakhstan 2022. IEA. Retrieved from more details
13 Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2023). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change. Retrieved from more details
14 Charyyeva, J., & Pan, Y. (2024). Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Future Depends on More Than a Referendum. Carnegia Politika. Retrieved from more details
15 QazMonitor. (2024). Kazakhstan to Launch 5 Large-Scale Renewable Energy Projects by 2030. Qazaqstan Monitor. Retrieved From more details
16 ACWA Power. (2023). Acwa power signs roadmap agreement for 1gw wind energy and battery storage project in Kazakhstan. Retrieved from more details
17 Total Energies. (2023). Kazakhstan: TotalEnergies signs a 25-year PPA for a 1 GW Wind Project. Retrieved from more details
18 Assiniyav, A. (2023). Kazakhstan Signs Agreements Worth $4.85 Billion in Green Energy, Infrastructure, and Digitization at COP28. The Astana Times. Retrieved from more details