Most experts acknowledge that the current temperatures are being made worse (hotter) by the 2023 El Niño effect and luckily this event is coming to an end "We're definitely seeing a weakening of El Niño, but the question is, where will we end up?" says Michelle L'Heureux, a scientist with the NOAA climate prediction centre. While there is still debate about why exactly the temperature has risen so much in March there is no debate regarding the root cause and the solution, “scientists are certain … the way to stop the world warming is to rapidly cut emissions of planet-warming gases.” 1

Sometimes it can seem that Kazakhstan is immune to all this climate change but this is not the case; a number of studies have suggested Central Asia will be badly hit as noted by the country’s president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his address to COP 28 back in December who said:

Politically too, Kazakhstan knows that it needs to take action to reduce its carbon footprint; between 2001 and 2019 Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions, dominated by combustion of fossil fuels, grew by more than 60 percent making it one of the largest emitters in the world on a per capita basis. 3

As a result, the World Bank believes the Kazakh economy faces “significant transition risks well beyond those related to oil and gas, including risks from changing consumer preferences, rising financing costs, and the climate policies of other countries (such as the imposition of trade restrictions on carbon-intensive activities).”

Faced with these two threats to its future Kazakhstan has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060, a process that was set in motion in 2020. That was when Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the aspiration to become carbon neutral by 2060 during the 2020 UN Summit on Climate Ambitions. 4 Then in February 2023, following consultations and detailed planning, he approved “The Strategy on Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060” and the policy was officially adopted. 5

In February the government announced plans to invest $110.7 million in renewable energy sources in 2024. This allocation includes $19.9 million for wind farms, $28.7 million for solar parks and $62 million for hydroelectric power stations,6 a somewhat underwhelming amount considering the OSCE’s lowest estimate of the investment required is $54.6 billion between 2015 and 2045,7 equivalent to $1.8 billion per year.

The Ministry of Energy is quoted as saying that to achieve a 15% share of renewable energy sources by 2030 and a 50% share by 2050, they plan to conduct annual auctions and implement large-scale projects with strategic investors, with the commissioning of five major renewable energy projects with a total capacity of five gigawatts planned for 2029-2030; presumably this includes the 3 x 1GW wind projects already announced to date.7

How the difference between renewable target of 50% in 2050 and the 2060 net zero emissions pledge will be bridged is not at all clear.